Great Lakes Ice Cover: How does this year compare to last winter?

"It's surprising the ice amount this year is almost equal to the ice cover on this date last year. Currently the entire Great Lakes is rated with an ice cover of 24.0 percent as of January 16, 2015. On January 16, 2014 the Great Lakes total ice cover was 24.5 percent."

www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/01/..._cover_how_does.html





Bonus story...

Rising Lake Michigan water level ‘unprecedented’
woodtv.com/2015/01/21/rising-lake-michig...level-unprecedented/

“We’re up almost two feet from there. Last fall, we had an unprecedented event where lake levels continued to rise through the fall. It has not rebounded this quickly I think in any recorded history that we have,” said Chris Schropp of the U.S Army Corps of Engineers."

Reid's post freaked me out…. it took so long for the ice to melt last year and the lake to warm up. I ski almost everyday by the lake both last year and this year, and I just couldn't believe, didn't want to believe, that it's been as cold as frequently this year as last. I found some more recent data comparing ice coverage and thickness for March 6 of 2015 to March 6 2014.

first image is Ice concentration (percent ice vs. open water) this year on the left and last year on the right.

For March 6th it looks like there is more ice coverage last year.

below is ice thickness, again for March 6, This year on the left, last year on the right.


Even though the year may have started out with similar ice compared to last year, at this point it appears as though there is less coverage this year, and even where there is ice, it's much less thick. Hopefully this means it will melt sooner, and warm quicker. Sorry I didn't do a very good job getting the images looking neat; but I thought this might be encouraging all the same.

February 2, 2015

Hear Ye! Hear Ye! Hear Ye!

Now, this Second Day of February, Candlemas Day in the year Two Thousand and Fifteen
being the One Hundred and Twenty Ninth Annual Trek of the Inner Circle of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club to Gobbler's Knob,
Punxsutawney Pennsylvania, United States of America...

Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, Prognosticator of All Prognosticators, was awakened from his burrow at 7:23 A.M.
by His Handlers, John Griffiths and Ron Ploucha and by the cheers of his thousands of steadfast and faithful followers.

Phil waved to his fans, gazed at the sky and around his stump with the help of the Inner Circle, looked for a shadow.
Majestically, speaking in Groundhogese, he directed President Deeley to the precise scroll, which reads:

"Forecasts abound on the Internet, But I, Punxsutawney Phil, am still your best bet.
Yes, a Shadow I see, you can start to Twitter, Hash Tag: Six More Weeks of Winter!"

Otto wrote:
Yep, less ice coverage this year at this time(2014 was a record setter). I made an overlay of NOAA's Lake Michigan percent ice coverage.

Grey line 2014, purple line 2015. Worst is over, warm up coming. All down hill from here!

Right on Brothers and Sister!

Groundhogs are good for fun and laughs, but not very helpful for planning serious matters like pre-season board-repair, or making sure your new wetsuit arrives before the first good Sailable blow of the season! Gobbler's Knob! Really Doug?

Based on carefully collected observation of total ice distribution and thickness, there is much less total ice to melt this year as compared to last. Basically, that means much less total heat will be required to increase the lake temp and provide access and reasonably safe conditions for windsurfing.

Hope to see you guys soon!

Otto, your assumption is absolutely correct. Less ice indicates more BTU retention in the water it should warm quicker this year.... if,.... the air temps provide good high energy entropy/BTUs.

As for Gobbler's Knob! Just a bit 'stir crazy'' . Getting equipment ready for this Spring helps. I've re-gripped my boom, received a new RDM 460 mast, and RDM extensions. Then, spent time rigging two of my larger sails on the new mast/extensions. Time (and energy) spent now on equipment is better than on the beach when it's blowing.......

Doug,
Right on Brother. Gotta make sure everything is tip-top. It's always exciting to see how sails rig on a new mast - hope things rig right and ride sweet.
I enjoyed your perspective on forecasting and got a solid laugh out of Gobbler's Knob - it sounds a little bit raunchy, right?

So…. I initially checked out this thread after seeing Addy's post under possible season openers I haven't seen the forecast for this weekend, but Addy was proposing sailing at the wall this coming weekend! That's what got me thinking about the ice melt.
Are you familiar with the spot. I'm pretty sure he means sailing south of the breakwater at 87th street (the steelworkers park). Good spot for flat water on big north winds. Do you reckon it'll be open water there by this weekend?
Speculations?

2014 vs. 2015 and my estimated forecast